Delayed: Ford's 4-cylinder Falcon

[Paxton]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

If we lose the Falcon and Territory, does that mean we get Explorer, Taurus and F series?

Nope. T6 Ranger.

Ford are their own worst enemies by not bringing the F250 back to Australia. They would sell every car they could bring in, at, or very near RRP.

[Bossxr8]

If they only made it in RHD. Thats the problem.

FoA sourced the last F series from Brazil in RHD, but they no longer make RHD F series.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I had the carp belted out of me by Mustang officianados, there is no '64 and a half model,
it was always called the '65 Mustang but the misnomer survived for decades.

Well it wasn't introduced until half way between when the 64 models went on sale and when the 65 models replaced them, so I don't see the problem.

It actually went into production March 64 and on sale April 64, so I can't see why it isn't considered a 64 model and not a 65 when it sold for 8 months of 64.

[jpd80]

F250 with new emission friendly 6.7 V8 diesel, so sad there isn't a RHD version.
Those Super Duty trucks have a market all of their own....

[Elks]

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

Ummm no.

2. 12,000 vs 1,000,000 = 1.2 %

not much culture there .....

Yep,

and wagon is another 1%
LPG another few%
And diesel few %
and LWB .....

and before you know it you have picked up 20,000+ units of useless small niches and your back in business.

It's death by a 1,000 cuts. If you trim the falcon back to XR6 & G6 amto auto sedans well you may as give up.

Look at the successful selling vehicles..They are not a mono culture.

How many variations on a theme are there within Commodore, HiLux, Corolla, or even slower sellers like Golf, Land Cruiser, Mazda 3 ( according to CarSales.com.au there are 19 different versions of the Madza 3), god forbid the customisers like BMW & Benz. You can spend $50~60k on a 3 series and pick from a bewildering array of options, G6ET you choose, Nav & 19" wheels. just.

You are wrong to write off the niches. There is probably 80 distinct niches that make up the 100% of the market.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by Paxton

Someone's not worried. Interesting.

I am. Ford Australia has started auditioning fat ladies. Territory has to be a success. I can't stress that enough. If Territory does not fire, we'll be driving Tauriis and Explorers.

Yeah I don't think so. I will never hand over money for a Ford product other then a Falcon or Territory. When they are gone I will stay with Falcons and if I need a smaller car will go second hand Jap. Falcon is the only reason I like Fords. Don't care bout the rest.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Well it wasn't introduced until half way between when the 64 models went on sale and when the 65 models replaced them, so I don't see the problem.

It actually went into production March 64 and on sale April 64, so I can't see why it isn't considered a 64 model and not a 65 when it sold for 8 months of 64.

US has Year Model designation that usually goes on sale the year before.
An example is that 2012 Focus is being delivered to dealerships now and
new Explorer is also a 2012 model yet was released a month or so ago....

[csv8]

What BMW offer...1 Series (E81) (2004–present) Hatchback, coupe and convertible
3 Series (E90) (2005–present) Sedan, coupe, convertible and wagon
5 Series (F10) (2010–present) Sedan and Wagon
5 Series Gran Turismo (2009–present) Progressive Activity Sedan
6 Series (E63) (2003–present) Coupe and convertible
7 Series (F01) (2008–present) Sedan
X1 (2009–present) Compact Crossover SUV/Sports Activity Vehicle (SAV)
X3 (F25) (2010–present) Compact Crossover SUV/Sports Activity Vehicle (SAV)
X5 (E70) (2006–present) Compact Crossover SUV/Sports Activity Vehicle (SAV)
X6 (2008–present) Sports Activity Coupe
Z4 (E89) (2009–present) Sports Roadster
M3 and M5.

[chevypower]

Originally Posted by jpd80

F250 with new emission friendly 6.7 V8 diesel, so sad there isn't a RHD version.
Those Super Duty trucks have a market all of their own....

Brilliant engine, and easy to get 20mpg unloaded. Though, I personally think that Ford needs to do an export version of the F150. Use the 4.4L V8 diesel they make for the Range Rover Vogue, and the EcoBoost V6. Beef up the payload a bit more so it can do the same job as the F250. Two engines, two cab styles (extended and crew), two trim levels (XLT and Lariat).

[csv8]

You can buy new F Trucks here....http://www.barbagallo.com.au/content...nce.htm?id=550

Brochure...http://www.barbagallo.com.au/uploads...20Brochure.pdf

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

The only reason Falcon survived for so long was the way the business plan was presented with evolutionary rolling changes and costs spread out over several years.

Then what's the problem?

Mulally has also said to FoA, "if it doesn't work for you, don't do it."
That's why the I-6 was reinstated for now and saved a lot of cash
right when Ford couldn't afford to spend on closing down assets.

Good man. FoA has roots so deep here... I bet FNA honestly don't know how they do it.

A business case is always presented to the Large car division in Dearborn,
the designs are reviewed and approved by Jay Mays and Derrick Kuzak,
that's why Mays was down here in February reviewing the progress of
the next product cycle proposals before final submission in September.

It's on FoA's head to make the numbers work whether that be a global car or a local development.

Jay Mays is just the head artist. He's got to approve the look. Kuzak has to approve the tech. Not that he's ever had complaints with anything done here.

Originally Posted by Paxton

You're right, and I apologise. I am slightly more enlightened to what is going on at Ford, and what I'm hearing concerns me. This isn't the right arena to take that out on.

I like to speculate, and argue about things I feel passionately about as much as the next man. Just remember my perspective is different.

Originally Posted by jpd80

Just remember that 2014 Mustang gets released in the spring of 2013, two years time
and our next all new big car isn't due until 2015/2016 which means that engineering
could go either way, with FWD/AWD Fusion / Mondeo based variant or extension of
E8 Orion with different engines, possibly lightened body ready for one last bash.
Pretty much what Holden will do with light Zeta from 2014 to 2018....

Just a thought...

2014 is quoted as the official release year. And it will probably be at the beginning of the year.. in accordance with with the half year mustang thing. Falcon's replace is due late 2014, early 2015 according to Burela (before he left.) And territory's replacement is due 2016.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

2014 is quoted as the official release year. And it will probably be at the beginning of the year.. in accordance with with the half year mustang thing. Falcon's replace is due late 2014, early 2015 according to Burela (before he left.) And territory's replacement is due 2016.

1)2012 models like Focus and Explorer are already released in the US and we're not into April yet...
2)The 2014 Mustang is being released in two years time.
3) Falcon's replacement is not due until 2016

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

1)2012 models like Focus and Explorer are already released in the US and we're not into April yet...
2)The 2014 Mustang is being released in two years time.
3) Falcon's replacement is not due until 2016

Well of course.... you have contacts. I'm just going on media statements.

[Martyvan]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

Well of course.... you have contacts. I'm just going on media statements.

And of course you believe whats written on drive.com.au etc, which is 101% owned by holden....

"I saw it on the internet, so it must be true" rings a bell here....

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by Martyvan

And of course you believe whats written on drive.com.au etc, which is 101% owned by holden....

"I saw it on the internet, so it must be true" rings a bell here....

I don't actually. Keep coming on those assumptions though, you're bound to get one right... one day.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

Well of course.... you have contacts. I'm just going on media statements.

The first two points are facts and the third point was confirmed by Marin Burela
who said that that this Falcon product cycle was expected to run until 2016
before replacement.

Nothing special or earth shattering about any of it.
The only change possible is if Falcon sales continue their nose dive and don't recover.
It could be that Falcon sales have recovered this month and April more so...

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

The first two points are facts and the third point was confirmed by Marin Burela who said that that this Falcon product cycle was expected to run until 2016 before replacement.

I'm pretty sure he was referring to Territory.

“The all-new Falcon doesn’t have to come into play until the end of 2014, early 2015, and we don’t have to make a decision until 2011 on what that vehicle will be, in terms of styling, technologies…”

http://www.caradvice.com.au/52966/fo...doubt-mulally/

Also from that:
“You can imagine another new platform, just like the Falcon, that’s going to be rear-wheel drive for Mustang, so you can imagine driving the ONE Ford we’re going to have every one of those, and so there’s no reason why we can’t have it in Australia,”

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Elks

Yep,

and wagon is another 1%
LPG another few%
And diesel few %
and LWB .....

and before you know it you have picked up 20,000+ units of useless small niches and your back in business.

It's death by a 1,000 cuts. If you trim the falcon back to XR6 & G6 amto auto sedans well you may as give up.

Look at the successful selling vehicles..They are not a mono culture.

How many variations on a theme are there within Commodore, HiLux, Corolla, or even slower sellers like Golf, Land Cruiser, Mazda 3 ( according to CarSales.com.au there are 19 different versions of the Madza 3), god forbid the customisers like BMW & Benz. You can spend $50~60k on a 3 series and pick from a bewildering array of options, G6ET you choose, Nav & 19" wheels. just.

You are wrong to write off the niches. There is probably 80 distinct niches that make up the 100% of the market.

i don't think you can compare falcon to any of the other models you mentioned apart from commodore. the others are manufactured and sold all over the world, which brings down the manufacturing costs. they are built in thailand, south africa, japan, germany etc etc. this is also the reason that mullaly wants global products. in the end it should mean more choice for consumers.

[FPV GTHO]

Burela's statements to me have always read that current generation Falcon could be stretched to 2016/2017, if needed. I havent seen anything from Burela that says 2016 is the target however. Next Mustang is 2014-2015. Next Fusion/Mondeo is 2013/2014. Next Taurus is 2015/2016. FoA wouldnt want to be pushing Falcon into 2017 with those product launches around them IMO.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Elks

Yep,

and wagon is another 1%
LPG another few%
And diesel few %
and LWB .....

and before you know it you have picked up 20,000+ units of useless small niches and your back in business.

It's death by a 1,000 cuts. If you trim the falcon back to XR6 & G6 amto auto sedans well you may as give up.

Look at the successful selling vehicles..They are not a mono culture.

How many variations on a theme are there within Commodore, HiLux, Corolla, or even slower sellers like Golf, Land Cruiser, Mazda 3 ( according to CarSales.com.au there are 19 different versions of the Madza 3), god forbid the customisers like BMW & Benz. You can spend $50~60k on a 3 series and pick from a bewildering array of options, G6ET you choose, Nav & 19" wheels. just.

You are wrong to write off the niches. There is probably 80 distinct niches that make up the 100% of the market.

The problem is that Falcon is not sold elsewhere and cannot support the
diversity of models provided by those other vehicles you use as examples.

What happens when those niches become more expensive to develop
than the expected returns from sales, what is a manufacturer to do?

The market is slowly going away from Falcon as buyers and Ford find
alternatives that are either better suited or offer a financial advantage.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by FPV GTHO

Burela's statements to me have always read that current generation Falcon could be stretched to 2016/2017, if needed. I havent seen anything from Burela that says 2016 is the target however. Next Mustang is 2014-2015. Next Fusion/Mondeo is 2013/2014. Next Taurus is 2015/2016. FoA wouldnt want to be pushing Falcon into 2017 with those product launches around them IMO.

THANK YOU!

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

I'm pretty sure he was referring to Territory.

“The all-new Falcon doesn’t have to come into play until the end of 2014, early 2015, and we don’t have to make a decision until 2011 on what that vehicle will be, in terms of styling, technologies…”

Might want to check out this article from goauto last year:

Link
FORD Australia president and CEO Marin Burela says he is confident the company's Falcon range will continue to be made in Australia after the current seventh-generation car is retired in 2016.

Speaking at celebrations marking Ford Australia's 85th anniversary and Falcon's 50th, Mr Burela said Ford had no plans to change the company's current operating structure and that head office in Detroit was delighted with the company's current performance.

"We have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in our Australian facilities at Geelong and Broadmeadows, and our view on that is that those facilities are there, we have invested in them, they are state of the art, we've got a great workforce building wonderful cars with great quality. "We will continue to do so."

As GoAuto has reported, Ford's 'One Ford' global model strategy dictates that the current Falcon will be the last to be designed and engineered exclusively in and for Australia, which means the next all-new Falcon is likely to be based on Ford's next-generation front/all-wheel-drive Taurus.

Federal industry minister Senator Kim Carr said today he was optimistic about the future for the Broadmeadows assembly plant.

"I believe there will be a Falcon made here after 2016," he said. "The substantive issue will be how much of it is made locally, and that is what we are talking through."

[Buntz]

I can't bring up that article. But when was it dated?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

I can't bring up that article. But when was it dated?

weird that, the link was working to the article about 10 minutes ago and now seems to have been been extinguished. Article was published June 2010.

Will find in archives and post here in a little while.... (like inside the 20 min curfew)

Try this LINK

[FPV GTHO]

I think realistically theres a 3 year window the next Falcon will come in, probably 2014-2017. Depending on what decisions are taken and how the public reacts to forthcoming updates i think will change when the next model gets pushed i.e. if current Falcon bombs in the market or head office decides to build a global platform similar to the current architecture, why not push for a replacement as soon as possible? Likewise if they cancel RWD Falcon but people still buy the updated models maybe they'll build them for as long as possible.

[Swordsman88]

Details provided in this story RE viability of the local operations (engine plant specifically) and in particular reasons for delays of the 4pt EB engine (topic of thread....):

http://www.carsales.com.au/news/2011...-geelong-24110

Originally Posted by carpoint

How long for Geelong?
words - Ken Gratton
Two imported engines will soon power locally manufactured Fords -- will that spell the end of the road for the Geelong engine plant?

It's a question that needed to be asked. With all that's going on at Ford Australia, how can the Geelong engine plant remain viable?

Two new engines are being introduced for the locally manufactured Falcon and Territory ranges. One, the imported diesel V6 for the Territory, promises to deliver performance levels akin to those of the inline six's, with the added benefit of significantly lower running costs.

The other engine is the EcoBoost four-cylinder planned for introduction in the Falcon within 12 months. While it's a harder sell than the diesel Territory, positive word-of-mouth for the EcoBoost four could kill a lot of six-cylinder sales.

Ford won't reveal the minimum production figure for operations at the Geelong engine plant to remain viable, so the facility's future may well be uncertain, but within Ford the feeling is positive, despite a precedent for threatening closure of the plant.

"We have absolutely no plans to change production of the inline six," said Sinead McAlary, Ford's Public Affairs Director, in conversation with the Carsales Network today. Up for discussion were changes in the market over the past few months -- changes that might have some impact on the viability of the engine plant -- or otherwise.

Sudden slump in Falcon sales
Falcon sales are very soft for the year to date. VFACTS figures for the FG Falcon were 1157 in January and 1572 in February -- numbers far short of the traditional tally for Ford's large car, even during the holiday period. Monthly sales in February were nearly a thousand units behind the same month in 2010 and year-to-date figures are over 2000 units in arrears. If this marks a long-term problem for Falcon, Ford's local manufacturing operation could be in serious trouble.

"Obviously we don't have LPG in our mix at the moment," said McAlary, by way of explaining the change in fortune for the Falcon.

"We stopped producing LPG in September; we had built some stock forward, but we have pretty much run out -- and LPG normally makes up about 25 per cent of our model mix. We had planned for the fact that the first half of this year -- until LPG comes on stream -- that it was going to be difficult.

"There were a few... one-offs, like the Queensland floods, for example. Our Queensland dealers didn't want us to ship more cars to them for a period of time... because they were either affected by the flood or people weren't buying them... that's starting to clear up.

"Rental buying has been quite low in January and February as well. A number of the rental car companies have postponed deals... and that may well be because of the reaction to floods in Queensland..."

EcoBoost Falcon delayed?
The arrival of the EcoBoost Falcon next year will deliver fuel consumption figures that even the very capable petrol six can't match -- and without sacrificing driveability, according to rumour.

Originally Ford had planned to bring out the four-cylinder Falcon this year, but the retail launch is now scheduled for 2012. So what's the reason for the delay and does it have anything to do with shoring up sales of the six-cylinder variants?

"[The EcoBoost] is not really delayed," says McAlary. "It was always going to be really, really late this year. What is happening now -- [it's] still up in the air -- we may still do our media launch before Christmas, but in terms of production, when it's actually on sale, that will be in 2012."

McAlary explained that Ford often built a buffer into the company's launch programs, allowing at least a week or so between the media launch and the retail launch. Any unforeseen problem discovered during or as a result of the media launch can be corrected before the car officially goes on sale.

In the case of the EcoBoost Falcon, the media launch would have been/will be so close to Christmas that few staff would be available to resolve issues arising prior to the car's retail launch. Furthermore, the big-buying fleets would be on their end-of-year break by that time.

As a consequence, it was decided by Ford to push back the EcoBoost Falcon's retail launch while staff were on leave over the Christmas/New Year period.

Petrol Territory surrenders ground?
As mentioned already, the Territory SUV is migrating to an imported diesel V6, which is likely to soak up a lot of sales formerly earmarked for petrol variants. Ford is less than a month away from introducing the substantially upgraded SZ Territory with not only the existing 4.0-litre petrol six on offer, but also a 2.7-litre turbodiesel V6 that is shared with the Land Rover Discovery 4.

Ford's own research indicates diesel-engined medium SUVs are now nearly as popular as petrol-engined models and that trend is set to continue. Indeed, Falcon and Territory Line Director for Ford Australia, Russell Christophers, told journalists during the technical presentation for the upgraded model that he expected diesel-engined medium SUVs to achieve sales parity with petrol SUVs by the end of this year.

Information subsequently received at the Carsales Network reveals that Ford expects 70 per cent of new Territory sales at launch will be diesel variants; the petrol variants of Territory accounting for just 30 per cent of the total.

"Launch mix will definitely be higher than what we anticipate it will be as an on-going running rate," McAlary responded, "because there has been a build-up of demand -- and our dealers are sort of getting a fair amount of interest. We will be concentrating on diesel at launch, but I think 70 per cent would be too high as an on-going mix level...

"Also... we need to get a lot of diesel vehicles into dealerships at the start, to build up stock levels... so it's not anticipated it will continue at the rate. We think it will fall to the 55 or 60 per cent rate."

Mondeo on the rise?
In contrast with the Falcon, Mondeo enjoyed a comparatively strong month in February. It was an all-time record for the European import, McAlary revealed. The mid-sized Ford was the second most popular car in its market segment last month -- with only Toyota's Camry ahead of it.

Mondeo sold 735 units in February -- nearly 300 more than February 2010. It's still well short of Falcon sales, but with its own EcoBoost engine scheduled for later this year -- potentially delivering Falcon-like performance in the significantly lighter car -- is the Mondeo snatching the larger car's customer base?

Well no, not current customers, according to McAlary.

"The really big thing for us is that a lot of our Falcon wagon customers -- once we'd decided not to continue Falcon wagon -- we were looking to move them over to Mondeo wagon. That's actually working for us. That's a strategy that's paying off."

The conclusion
What is the on-going viability of inline six production at Geelong then? Much depends on the respective sales of the 4.0-litre variants of Falcon, Territory and Ute into the future. Nobody can say how well the EcoBoost engine will be accepted in the Falcon, for instance.

And if the diesel accounts for even half of all Territory sales, that might count heavily against the petrol six if sales of the Territory don't pick up across the board, following the introduction of the SZ model.

For her part, McAlary believes Ford Australia has all bases covered and production of the inline six at Geelong is safe.

"We've known we were going to introduce EcoBoost and the diesel for a couple of years now, so obviously we've planned for that. 70 per cent is definitely too high of a mix for on-going [sales], in terms of diesel for Territory. We will also be promoting the petrol version of Territory.

"And don't forget the other new thing we have this year is LPI, which goes through the engine plant. We anticipate that that engine is actually going to take away a lot of the reasons why people haven't bought LPG in the past -- there's been the perceived degradation in performance, there's been [packaging] issues, et cetera.

"We're looking at positioning LPI much more aggressively than we have done with LPG in the past. So we've balanced out where we think it's all going to flow -- and the engine plant has obviously been taken into consideration as part of that. We see no concerns with that at this stage.

"We think [the LPI six is] a good opportunity to attract more retail buyers. That's how we'll be targeting it, as well as catering to the fleets and small business owners that are very keen on it already."


Published : Monday, 21 March 2011

Some good points raised I feel. In particular the LPI situation. This has been largely ignored by current media reports (and alot of people on here too). Its great to talk about diesel territory and EB falcon but LPI is a big part of the picture. Ford is saying in this article that they intend to go after private buyers much more than previously, which sounds interesting given the EB is something they would go for you'd think. While things are tough now its hard to say what it will be like later in the year and into 20112 because ford is launchign so much new stuff (including other ford models...). How this all impacts on local car sales is not clear. Perhaps ford is going to try to get both significant fleet sales (all the LPG market they did have will return with a possible 10-20% increase due to even lower burn) and private buyers. At least keep the latter interested until EB turns up.

Quick question for those that might know. What is happening packaging wise with LPI. Ford spokeswoman alludes to better 'packaging' that before....my understanding is that if its a donut tank (as currently) you will still lose the spare tyre.....so maybe ca can of goo? I don't see how LPI changes the packaging situton but maybe ford has something up its sleeve here?? I'm not familiar but does holden still use a boot mounted tank for their LPG VE?? Although i like to have a spare tyre if its for urban duties a can of goo isn't the worst idea versus a boot full of tyre or worse tank....

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by Swordsman88

Details provided in this story RE viability of the local operations (engine plant specifically) and in particular reasons for delays of the 4pt EB engine (topic of thread....):

Some good points raised I feel. In particular the LPI situation. This has been largely ignored by current media reports (and alot of people on here too). Its great to talk about diesel territory and EB falcon but LPI is a big part of the picture. Ford is saying in this article that they intend to go after private buyers much more than previously, which sounds interesting given the EB is something they would go for you'd think. While things are tough now its hard to say what it will be like later in the year and into 20112 because ford is launchign so much new stuff (including other ford models...). How this all impacts on local car sales is not clear. Perhaps ford is going to try to get both significant fleet sales (all the LPG market they did have will return with a possible 10-20% increase due to even lower burn) and private buyers. At least keep the latter interested until EB turns up.

Quick question for those that might know. What is happening packaging wise with LPI. Ford spokeswoman alludes to better 'packaging' that before....my understanding is that if its a donut tank (as currently) you will still lose the spare tyre.....so maybe ca can of goo? I don't see how LPI changes the packaging situton but maybe ford has something up its sleeve here?? I'm not familiar but does holden still use a boot mounted tank for their LPG VE?? Although i like to have a spare tyre if its for urban duties a can of goo isn't the worst idea versus a boot full of tyre or worse tank....

Yeah... 'perceived' packaging. I don't think Ford really educated people on the virtues of their system. It's start and stop on gas... no petrol. This is awesome compared to the VE dual fuel tank in the boot option.

E-Gas falcons also retain their value.... and should outsell EB I think for those in the know because you can burn even less now for much cheaper... plus as stated. Retail value.

Originally Posted by jpd80

weird that, the link was working to the article about 10 minutes ago and now seems to have been been extinguished. Article was published June 2010.

Will find in archives and post here in a little while.... (like inside the 20 min curfew)

Try this LINK

I counter your article with a much more recent article. Falcon and Mustang. 2015

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

I counter your article with a much more recent article. Falcon and Mustang. 2015

Your link to Caradvice article is dated January 2010.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Your link to Caradvice article is dated January 2010.

Sorry. Forgot to put it in.

LINK

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

Sorry. Forgot to put it in.

LINK

From your link:

Broadmeadows-based design team involved in submitting styling ideas for the redesigned muscle car to head office in Detroit.

Redesigned Mustang yes, but that's no guarantee of another RWD Falcon.
This is what the rest of your link said:

Mr Mays is Ford’s group vice-president of global design and chief creative officer. He told GoAuto at the Detroit motor show in January that Ford Australia was also competing with design studios in Dearborn (US), Dunton (UK) and Cologne (Germany) to win the contract for the next-generation Falcon –a final decision on which is due soon and is likely to see a move to a front-wheel drive platform.